Imagine the 2026 Winter Olympics without one of hockey’s most storied nations. It’s a reality we’re facing, and it’s sparking a lot of 'what ifs.' Russia’s absence from the Olympic ice is more than just a missing team—it’s a void in the sport’s global narrative. But here’s where it gets intriguing: What if Russia were allowed to compete? What would their team look like, and how would their presence shake up the tournament? Let’s dive into this hypothetical scenario, guided by none other than the legendary Igor Larionov, aka 'The Professor,' who’s crafted a Russian Olympic roster that’s as bold as it is thought-provoking.
The NHL’s return to the Olympics after a 12-year hiatus is already a big deal, but Russia’s ban from international play since 2022 due to its invasion of Ukraine has left a noticeable gap. The Athletic recently caught up with Larionov, the Hockey Hall of Famer and head coach of SKA St. Petersburg, to explore this 'what if' scenario. And this is the part most people miss: Larionov’s roster isn’t just a fantasy lineup—it’s a window into his philosophy on skill, teamwork, and the Russian hockey identity.
But here’s where it gets controversial: Larionov’s roster includes zero KHL players. 'I’ve been working in the KHL for four years now. I don’t see anyone who could be close to the guys now playing in the NHL,' he stated bluntly. This bold assertion is sure to spark debate among fans of both leagues. Is the NHL truly that far ahead, or is Larionov overlooking hidden gems in the KHL? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
The Roster Breakdown
Goalies: Larionov’s choices are a who’s who of NHL stardom. Sergei Bobrovsky, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Igor Shesterkin made the cut, leaving Ilya Sorokin on the sidelines. 'There’s only one net,' Larionov quipped, emphasizing the need for proven winners. Fun fact: Shesterkin once played as a winger during a summer skate, showcasing his versatility—and scoring skills!
Defensemen: Larionov’s blue line is a mix of skill, size, and hockey IQ. Notable names include Artem Zub, who replaced Alexander Romanov due to injury. 'Physicality is a big part of the game, but skill and mind are what set players apart,' Larionov explained. This philosophy is evident in his selection of Nikita Zadorov, whose hockey IQ he values over sheer size.
Forwards: Here’s where Larionov’s creativity shines. He envisions pairing Montreal Canadiens rookie Ivan Demidov with Alex Ovechkin, blending speed, skill, and experience. 'That would be special,' he said. Controversially, he placed Artemi Panarin at center, a position he’s not typically known for. 'The mind is the key for success,' Larionov insisted, trusting Panarin’s hockey IQ to make it work. He also included young talent like Fedor Svechkov and reliable depth players like Ilya Mikheyev, who he praised for his work ethic.
The Impact of Russia’s Presence
If Russia were in the tournament, they’d likely be bronze medal favorites, just ahead of Sweden. Their dynamic offense and elite goaltending would give them a 44.7 percent chance of medaling and a 12.2 percent shot at gold. But their presence would shake up the entire tournament.
Group Stage Drama: Russia’s inclusion would bump France out and create more competitive groups. Group C, featuring Russia, the U.S., Slovakia, and Latvia, would be a powder keg of tension. Canada’s Group A odds would drop from 73 percent to 66 percent, while the U.S.’s would fall from 84 percent to 64 percent. The added uncertainty would make the group stage far more suspenseful.
Semifinal Shocks: With Russia in the mix, both Canada and the U.S. would face a higher risk of early elimination—23 percent compared to the current 16 to 18 percent. The chance of a quarterfinal clash between these two powerhouses would nearly double, from 4.5 percent to 8.3 percent. This would also reduce the likelihood of a gold-medal game showdown, adding an extra layer of unpredictability.
Medal Odds: Russia’s presence would lower medal odds across the board. Canada and the U.S. would see a roughly four-point drop in gold medal chances, while Sweden’s medaling odds would take a 13-point hit. Without Russia, the tournament is undeniably easier for the top contenders.
The Bigger Question
Russia’s absence isn’t just about missing a team—it’s about missing a narrative. Their historical rivalry with Canada and the U.S., their unique style of play, and their ability to disrupt the status quo are all part of what makes Olympic hockey so compelling. Is the tournament truly complete without them? Weigh in below—do you think Russia’s ban is justified, or should they have been allowed to compete? And if they were included, how do you think they’d fare?
One thing’s for sure: with or without Russia, the 2026 Winter Olympics will be a hockey spectacle like no other. But it’s hard not to wonder what could have been.
