The Rise of Populism: What One Nation’s Victory in Farrer Really Means
The recent by-election in Farrer, a rural NSW seat held by the Coalition for 77 years, has sent shockwaves through Australian politics. One Nation’s historic win, with candidate David Farley securing the seat, isn’t just a local upset—it’s a symptom of a much larger shift in the political landscape. Personally, I think this victory is less about One Nation’s strength and more about the growing disillusionment with traditional parties. What makes this particularly fascinating is how it reflects a global trend: the rise of populist movements in response to economic anxiety and political alienation.
The Nationals’ Identity Crisis
Nationals MP Colin Boyce’s brief flirtation with the idea of defecting to One Nation—before quickly backtracking—speaks volumes. When asked if he’d consider joining One Nation, Boyce’s initial response was, “I would consider a lot of things.” From my perspective, this hesitation reveals a deeper unease within the Nationals. The party, once a stronghold for rural and blue-collar voters, is now grappling with its identity. Are they the party of mining and resources, as Boyce claims, or are they losing touch with their base?
What many people don’t realize is that Boyce’s success in his Queensland electorate isn’t just about policy—it’s about his ability to connect with voters on a visceral level. He’s “very clear” on where he stands, as he puts it, and that clarity resonates. But here’s the thing: clarity alone isn’t enough when the political ground is shifting beneath your feet. One Nation’s victory in Farrer is a wake-up call for the Nationals. If they don’t adapt, they risk becoming irrelevant.
One Nation’s Ambitions: Western Sydney in the Crosshairs
One Nation’s sights are now set on Western Sydney, a Labor stronghold. Barnaby Joyce, the party’s outspoken figurehead, has made no secret of this. “We’re coming for Western Sydney,” he declared. What this really suggests is that One Nation isn’t content with being a regional protest party—it wants to become a national force.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Joyce claims they’re courting “first and second-generation Australians” as candidates. On the surface, this seems like a strategic move to diversify their appeal. However, if you take a step back and think about it, it’s also a calculated attempt to reframe One Nation’s image. The party, often labeled far-right, is trying to position itself as inclusive—or at least, less exclusionary. Whether this will work remains to be seen, but it’s a shrewd play in a multicultural region like Western Sydney.
The Coalition’s Strategic Blunder
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese didn’t mince words when he blamed the Coalition for One Nation’s rise. “They legitimized One Nation,” he said, pointing to their decision to preference the party. In my opinion, Albanese is onto something here. By adopting watered-down versions of One Nation’s policies and then preferencing them, the Coalition effectively gave the party a stamp of approval.
What’s often misunderstood is that this isn’t just about policy alignment—it’s about moral signaling. When traditional conservative parties cozy up to populists, they send a message to voters: “It’s okay to vote for the extremes.” This raises a deeper question: Are mainstream parties so desperate to cling to power that they’re willing to erode their own principles?
The Legacy of Betrayal
Another factor in Farrer’s upset was the ousting of former MP Sussan Ley, who held the seat for 25 years. Ley’s removal, without even being allowed to deliver a budget reply, left a bitter taste in the mouths of many voters. Albanese called it a “legacy of betrayal,” and I couldn’t agree more. Politics is as much about symbolism as it is about substance. When a party treats its long-serving members with such disregard, it sends a message: loyalty doesn’t matter.
This isn’t just about Farrer—it’s about the broader erosion of trust in political institutions. People are feeling betrayed, not just by individual politicians but by the system itself. And when trust collapses, populists step in to fill the void.
The Broader Implications: A System Under Strain
One Nation’s victory in Farrer isn’t an isolated incident. It’s part of a global trend where populist movements are capitalizing on economic insecurity and political disillusionment. From my perspective, this is a symptom of a system that’s failing to address the needs of ordinary people. As Albanese noted, there’s a “great deal of disappointment” among voters who feel the system isn’t working for them.
What this really suggests is that traditional parties need to do more than just tweak their policies. They need to fundamentally rethink their approach to governance. It’s not enough to fight for your community, as Nationals leader Matt Canavan puts it—you need to show that you’re fighting for all communities.
Final Thoughts: The Road Ahead
One Nation’s win in Farrer is a warning shot, not just for the Coalition but for all mainstream parties. The political landscape is changing, and those who fail to adapt will be left behind. Personally, I think the real question isn’t whether One Nation can sustain its momentum—it’s whether traditional parties can regain the trust they’ve lost.
If you take a step back and think about it, this isn’t just about politics—it’s about the social contract. When people feel like the system is rigged against them, they’ll turn to anyone who promises change, no matter how radical. The challenge for mainstream parties is to prove that they can deliver that change without resorting to populism.
In the end, Farrer isn’t just a seat—it’s a mirror reflecting the cracks in our political system. And unless those cracks are addressed, we’ll see more upsets like this in the years to come.
