Hold onto your seats, movie fans, because the box office battle this weekend is about to get intense! Despite Gerard Butler’s star power and a chimp gone wild, Avatar: Fire and Ash is poised to dominate its fourth weekend, eyeing a cool $20M+. But here’s where it gets interesting: two new releases are targeting the older-male demographic, and they’re not here to play second fiddle. Let’s break it down.
With 76% of colleges on break through Friday, holiday moviegoing is still in full swing. Lionsgate-STX-Anton’s Greenland 2: Migration and Paramount/18Hz’s monkey horror flick Primate are stepping into the ring, both aiming for $8M-$10M. But can they dethrone James Cameron’s juggernaut? Avatar: Fire and Ash has already crossed the $1 billion mark globally, with a domestic haul of $311.8M, and it’s still holding onto premium formats like IMAX and 4D. Is this the weekend its reign finally cools off? Or will it continue to dominate?
Don’t underestimate Greenland 2—Gerard Butler has a loyal older-male fan base, and the first film is currently trending on HBO Max. Plus, his Den of Thieves: Pantera sequel opened strong last year with $15M. But here’s the kicker: Greenland 2 is pacing slightly behind Den of Thieves 2. Will Butler’s charm be enough to close the gap? And this is the part most people miss: the first Greenland film thrived during the pandemic, pulling in $53.2M abroad and a $25M streaming deal—a rarity for indies today. With a $12M budget and $20M in domestic marketing, Lionsgate is betting big on this Ric Roman Waugh-directed sequel.
Meanwhile, Primate is making waves as the first theatrical release from Walter Hamada’s 18Hz label. Directed by Johannes Roberts, this horror film follows a tropical vacation gone wrong when a chimp loses its marbles. It’s already a critic favorite with a 90% Rotten Tomatoes score, but it’s up against last year’s The Monkey, which opened to $14M. Can Primate outshine its primate predecessor? Internationally, it’s opening in 26 markets this week, with more to follow—but will it roar or whimper?
Also hitting theaters wide is Bradley Cooper’s dramedy Is This Thing On?, starring Will Arnett as a divorcé finding humor in stand-up comedy. With an 86% critic score and 88% audience approval, it’s a feel-good contender, though it’s only expected to pull in single digits this weekend. And for drama lovers, Angel Studios’ I Was a Stranger, an Arabic drama starring Omar Sy and Jay Abdo, is opening in 1,400 locations.
Finally, in limited release, Gus Van Sant’s Dead Man’s Wire is turning heads with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score. Starring Bill Skarsgård, Al Pacino, and more, this thriller is inspired by the 1977 Tony Kiritsis hostage standoff. Is this the sleeper hit of the season?
Here’s the controversial question: With Avatar: Fire and Ash still dominating, are audiences ready to embrace smaller films like Primate or Greenland 2? Or is the blockbuster era here to stay? Let us know in the comments—we want to hear your take!
